Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Center Prospects

I finally get around to the last position on my prospect list. On a side note, I am also doing analysis for WNBAdraftnet's college prospects each week. You can track how the various WNBA prospects from the NCAA 2009 senior class are doing by the numbers each week at that site. Today's top center prospect vaulted to the top of the class in this second week of action.

Center Prospects
Courtney Paris
Oklahoma, 6'4"
Courtney is a formidable post player with size to match her height. She also knows how to use that size on the low block. She is near the top of the list for shooting/scoring for centers (FL:59%, eFG: 56%, TS: 57%), is right where we expect a star for usage (25%), and second on the list for BoxScore (7.08). She assists on 57% of her possessions and only the turns the ball over on 7% of them. She is simply a standout on the boards at both end of the floor. She grabs 24% of available defensive rebounds for her team, 15% of available offensive rebounds and averages 18 rebounds per 40 minutes. No one else comes even close. Her 81.59 offensive rating is not all that exciting, but I suspect it is representative of the pace at which Oklahoma plays given her sister Ashley offers the same rating. Her performance combines with a solid team RPI to give her the second best adjusted individual rating and the top adjusted WinScore of my center prospects. No one else is within 40% of her WinScore. The numbers back up the consensus number 1 draft pick predictions by the media. Courtney has a solid future in the WNBA.

Robyn Fairbanks
Utah Valley State, 6'1"
Sadly, here is where numbers do not tell the whole story. Robyn puts up fantastic numbers, but her team is not even a member of any particular conference. Her height makes her an undersized PF or a SF in the pros, and I don't know that she can play the three with enough speed/athleticism to make that work. She could be a 6th man candidate along the lines of Plenette Pierson if she were drafted into the right system. Robyn is a strong shooter (FL: 58%, eFG: 60%, TS: 63%) who is heavily used by her team (34.43 Usage). She has a decent BoxScore rating (5.11) and an excellent assist to turnover ratio. She assists on 63% of her possessions while only turning the ball over on 6% of them. She is an above average rebounder despite her size disadvantage (DR: 16%, OR: 8%, R/40: 14). She has the second best offensive rating of any center on my list, and the second best overall individual rating. Her RPI adjusted individual rating is in the top 5 despite playing for a small school in the middle of nowhere, and she has the second best adjusted WinScore of any center prospect.

Traci Edwards
UW Milwaukee, 6'2"
Center prospects do not come tall this season, and the best numbers producers are coming from smaller schools. Traci is the top shooter on my list (FL: 59%, eFG:60%, TS: 67%). She has a high Usage at 28.32 indicating her importance to her team. She has a good BoxScore at 6.37 and is a strong passing option in the post (AR: 67%, TOR:8%). She is the second best rebounder available grabbing 18% of the defensive rebounds, 10% of the offensive rebounds and averaging 12 rebounds per 40 minutes. She has a solid offensive rating of 93.62 and the best individual rating because of her balanced offensive/defensive stats and efficiency. Her team's low RPI drop her to the middle of the pack for adjusted individual rating and fourth for adjusted WinScore.

Chante Black
Duke, 6'4
Chante and Courtney are the best of the true bigs available. Chante also comes from a solid program. This should combine with her strong numbers to vault her into the WNBA next year. Chante is a strong shooter/score (FL: 56%, eFG: 52%, TS: 58%) but only has a 23% usage rate. Her BoxScore is an average 5.47 but her assist/turnover ratios are decent (AR: 58%, TOR: 9%). She is also a decent rebounder (DR: 11%, OR: 7%, R/40: 11). She has a poor offensive rating of 79.41 but a strong individual rating indicating her defensive value on a defensive oriented team. Her team's strong RPI vault her towards the top of the adjusted individual rating and adjusted WinScores.

Kia Vaughn
Rutgers, 6'4"
Kia is another tall player with decent numbers. She has a low floor percentage (49%) which indicates that while she shoots well (averaging 55% in each of the other shooting categories) she is not a clutch player. She has a barely above average usage of 21.25 (20% is average) which indicates either she is not critical to team success, has a really strong backup, or Coach Stringer prefers to manage her minutes tightly. Her assist and turnover ratios are strong (AR: 55%, TOR:6%) and she appears to rebound well (DR: 15%, OR: 9%, R/40: 11). Her offensive rating is a low 79.36 which is representative of the Rutgers style of play. Her team's solid RPI (hey they made it to the NCCA final last season) keep her adjusted individual and adjusted WinScores in the top five.

Honorable Mentions:
Nadia Parker (USC, 6'3"), Devanei Hampton (California, 6'3"), Kaitlin Sowinski (Sacred Heart, 6'4"), Aisha Mohammed (Virginia, 6'3")

Tall Players I Wish Were a Little Better:
Megan Skouby (Iowa, 6'6"), Amber Sprague (San Diego, 6'5")

Remaining Prospects:
Lade Akande, Jenna Green, Kemie Nkele, Jessica Adair, Shawn Goff (injured) Sybil Dosty, Lauren Lacey


Anonymous said...

Tudy Reed senior ( Xavier) she is a player with great speed and athleticism who can do it all on the court, run, shoot, score rebound and defend she is someone to keep an eye on .

Patrick said...

I took a look at Tudy, but she is pretty far off the radar near the end of my 95 or so prospects for the season. She did not rank in the top 25 of any of the statistics that I track as of this past week.