Wednesday, May 09, 2007

2006 Storm Lineup Plus/Minus


Kevin Pelton pointed out that the Phoenix Mercury statistics for 2006 published on the the team site are inaccurate. Just like the Mecury team that failed to show up in Seattle for the final game of the season (which if won could have secured a playoff spot for them) with their poor play, the Mecury web team (or perhaps it is the WNBA web team) failed to record the 34th game of the season in their season stats. Thus I have a reworked list of differential leaders for 2006...

Connecticut Sun: +10.20
Detroit Shock: +5.56
Sacramento Monarchs: +5.22
Indiana Fever: +4.70
LA Sparks: +3.79
Washington Mystics: +3.38
Phoenix Mercury: +2.94
Seattle Storm: +2.66
Houston Comets: +2.44
San Antonio Silver Stars: -3.10
Charlotte Sting: -4.33
NY Liberty: -7.67
Minnesota Lynx: -8.13

On a separate issue, Paul Swanson has clarified that he does do the +/- manually (the man must have superhuman patience and really sore fingers) not with a scanner as I suggested. He believes the discrepancies are from changes to the data over time. He calculates off initial output, and I do it much later. Sometimes I do it the next day or so after a game, but then I double check the data at the end of the season or before the next season.

Lineup Data

Top 10 Performing Lineups

Bird-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Burse (166 minutes): +57
Bird-Lennox-Turner-Jackson-Burse (69 minutes): +54
Bird-Lennox-Turner-Jackson-Johnson (72 minutes): +32
Bird-Wright-Gortman-Jackson-Burse (9 minutes): +15
Lawson-Wright-Castro-Jackson-Robinson (7 minutes): +14
Bird-Lennox-Gortman-Jackson-Burse (26 minutes): +13
Bird-Gortman-Castro-Jackson-Burse (10 minutes): +13
Bird-Lennox-Wright-Turner-Jackson (9 minutes): +9
Bird-Lennox-Castro-Turner-Burse (10 minutes): +8
Lawson-Wright-Castro-Jackson-Johnson (8 minutes): +8

Top 10 Net40 Lineups (>10 minutes played)
Bird-Lennox-Turner-Jackson-Burse: +31.59
Bird-Lennox-Gortman-Jackson-Burse: +20.25
Lawson-Wright-Castro-Robinson-Johnson: +17.83
Bird-Lennox-Turner-Jackson-Johnson: +17.72
Bird-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Burse: +13.72
Wright-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Burse: +13.11
Bird-Wright-Gortman-Jackson-Johnson: +12.99
Bird-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Palmer: +6.72
Bird-Wright-Turner-Johnson-Burse: +5.01
Bird-Lennox-Turner-Johnson-Burse: +0.00 (4 way tie)
Bird-Wright-Castro-Jackson-Johnson: +0.00
Bird-Lennox-Castro-Turner-Jackson: +0.00
Bird-Gortman-Turner-Johnson-Burse: +0.00

Top 10 Most Used Lineups
Bird-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Burse (166 minutes): +57
Bird-Lennox-Turner-Jackson-Johnson (72 minutes): +32
Bird-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Johnson (72 minutes): -4
Bird-Lennox-Turner-Jackson-Burse (69 minutes): +54
Bird-Lennox-Castro-Johnson-Burse (36 minutes): -28
Bird-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Palmer (36 minutes): +6
Bird-Lennox-Turner-Johnson-Burse (34 minutes): +0
Bird-Lennox-Gortman-Jackson-Burse (26 minutes): +13
Bird-Wright-Castro-Jackson-Burse (25 minutes): -2
Bird-Wright-Turner-Johnson-Burse (24 minutes): +3


It should be no surpise that Bird and Jackson are featured in eight out of the ten lineups. They were the most effective player pair in 2005 and no doubt in every year that they have played together. They ARE the stars. Bird and Jackson are in eight out of the ten lineups as individuals with Lennox and Burse in six out of the ten lineups. These are the team's best players.

I find it interesting however that the three spot has every player slotted for the position in at least one of the best lineups. Castro had the most, with Turner and Gortman equal and Wright in the "small ball" lineup. With Gearlds available this year at the two or the three it will be interesting to see how things turn out. Overall, I think Barb Turner's numbers from last year have to give her an edge over Shyra Ely. I hope that she comes back ready and that Coach Donovan isn't too far away from the numbers. She was clearly a positive player in terms of lineup performance based on her +/- stats for 2006. Ely will need to do better in the next exhibition game than she did in Connecticut where she failed to follow her strong showing in Chicago if she wants to sway me.

I am also very excited about Wendy Palmer. She made the top 10 in a couple of categories despite only playing in 5 games last season. Two of the most used lineups that had negative values had Johnson paired with the starters and either Jackson or Burse. Insert Wendy into those slots and they could have been among strongest performing of the top 10 lineups. Wendy never played with JB, but here is the other lineup...

Bird-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Johnson: -4.00
Bird-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Palmer: +6.72

Here is one fan looking for a healthy Wendy ALL season long. I would love to see her play with JB as well. JB can post up and Wendy can offensive rebound for the put-back when the other team is forced to double. It can be a reverse of what happens with the LJ/JB pairing.

I am going to run player/pair numbers, but the more complicated data crunching may take a few days.

By the way, the first home game is only TWO DAYS AWAY!!!

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