Friday, August 01, 2008

Numbers at the Olympic Break

As the team moves into the Olympic break, I wanted to take a look at the numbers to this point in the season, even though there are only a handful of games remaining.

With eight games remaining the Storm have already matched their 2007 win total. They need only to win four of the remaining games to set a new season win total record (20-14 in 2004 and 2005). Six of the remaining games are against teams that are either below .500 (two against Atlanta), or are teams they have already defeated handily (Minnesota twice, Chicago twice, Houston twice, Sacramento three times). The other two are against Connecticut (the only team to beat Seattle in Key Arena this season) and Los Angeles (split season 1-1 home and away). Unfortunately only three of these games (Houston, Atlanta, LA) are at home in Key Arena where the Storm have only lost one game this season. The Storm hold the best home record in the WNBA so far this season. If they follow their current percentages, ignoring the quality of the teams, they should go 3-0 at home and 2-3 on the road. Based on the teams they are facing they could close the season going 6-2. Personally, the two games I think they need to win are those I have projected as losses, the road games vs. Connecticut and LA in order to record wins against every playoff team, and show they can win on the road.

Player

True Shooting Percentage

Effective FG%

Floor Percentage

Points/Game

Camille Little

58.38%

57.03%

48.50%

7.7

Kelly Santos

56.65%

47.37%

54.56%

2.1

Lauren Jackson

56.42%

49.39%

50.73%

20.2

Sue Bird

52.01%

47.72%

45.87%

13.5

Tanisha Wright

51.56%

47.17%

45.55%

7.0

Katie Gearlds

48.76%

48.56%

38.14%

4.0

Yolanda Griffith

48.56%

41.90%

49.82%

6.2

Sheryl Swoopes

47.74%

43.18%

48.00%

7.7

Swin Cash

47.00%

37.50%

46.57%

11.3

Shyra Ely

43.28%

39.24%

41.13%

2.9

Ashley Robinson

23.52%

24.00%

29.36%

0.5

Kristin O'Neil

0%

0%

0%

0.0



What amazes me is that the entire main rotation is shooting better than 40%. Camille Little has shot to the top of the accuracy charts despite being forced into more minutes and a starting position by the five game absence of Lauren Jackson. I love that the top five spots contain three bench players.


Top Ratings

PlayerOffensive RatingIndividual Rating
Lauren Jackson112.6397.17
Kelly Santos108.7893.86
Sue Bird102.8193.00
Sheryl Swoopes101.6485.89
Camille Little99.2687.01
Katie Gearlds97.4784.22
Yolanda Griffith97.4277.81
Swin Cash95.2178.67
Tanisha Wright94.5483.08
Shyra Ely84.6467.13
Ashley Robinson59.6535.74
Kristin O'Neil20.1815.38


At the start of the season it was said that Agler's offensive system was an equal opportunity approach where any player could score at any time. The Storm have not had this balanced an offensive team since the 2004 and 2005 seasons. Last season the Storm had one player with an offensive rating over 100 and sixover 90. In 2004 they had three over 100 and nine over 90.


Plus/Minus


Player

On

Off

Roland Rating

Minutes Played

Lauren Jackson

+125

-60

+15.09

696

Sue Bird

+117

-60

+9.68

887

Yolanda Griffith

+85

-28

+8.24

495

Katie Gearlds

+54

+3

+7.29

290

Swin Cash

+74

-17

+6.51

797

Sheryl Swoopes

+58

-1

+3.74

638

Tanisha Wright

-19

+26

-7.60

551

Kelly Santos

-13

+70

-10.74

70

Camille Little

-14

+80

+23.42

224

Shyra Ely

-66

+123

-14.67

275

Ashley Robinson

-85

+142

-24.95

194

Kristin O'Neil

-16

+67

-28.24

25

I am only using Little's numbers in a Storm uniform, ignoring her data while in Atlanta. The Roland Rating is computed by subtracting the Net40 off from the Net40 on.

Most Effective Lineups

Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Griffith: +25
Bird-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Jackson: +23
Bird-Wright-Cash-Jackson-Griffith: +17
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Jackson-Griffith: +13
Bird-Swoopes-Gearlds-Jackson-Griffith: +11
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Jackson-Griffith: +9
Bird-Wright-Gearlds-Cash-Little: +9
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Jackson-Robinson: +9
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Little-Jackson: +6
Bird-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Griffith: +6
Beck-Gearlds-Ely-Santos-Robinson: +5
Wright-Gearlds-Cash-Ely-Little: +5
Bird-Wright-Gearlds-Jackson-Griffith: +5
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Robinson-Griffith: +5
Wright-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Griffith: +5
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Ely-Robinson: +5
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash: +5

Least Effective Lineups

Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Ely-Jackson: -15
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Ely-Robinson: -14
Wright-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Jackson:-10
Bird-Wright-Cash-Little-Robinson: -9
Bird-Wright-Gearlds-Cash-Ely: -9
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Little-Griffith: -7
O'Neil-Gearlds-Ely-Santos-Robinson: -7
Wright-Gearlds-Ely-Little-Griffith: -7
Bird-Wright-Cash-Little-Santos: -6
Wright-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Griffith: -6
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Robinson: -6
Bird-Gearlds-Cash-Ely-Griffith: -5
Bird-Wright-Gearlds-Cash-Griffith: -5

Top Player Pairs

Bird-Jackson: +142
Jackson-Griffith: +106
Bird-Griffith: +95
Bird-Cash: +95
Bird-Swoopes: +91
Bird-Gearlds: +85
Cash-Jackson: +82
Cash-Griffith: +69
Gearlds-Jackson: +68
Swoopes-Griffith: +65
Swoopes-Cash: +65
Swoopes-Jackson: +65
Gearlds-Cash: +62
Wright-Jackson: +62

Most Effective Swing Player Positions

Bird: Point Guard +117
Jackson: Power Forward: +78
Cash: Power Forward +55
Jackson: Center +47
Gearlds: Small Forward +38
Swoopes: Shooting Guard +29
Swoopes: Small Forward +27
Wright: Shooting Guard +16
Little: Center +16


Least Effective Swing Player Positions

Ely: Power Forward -45
Wright: Point Guard -36
Little: Power Forward -27

I was really surprised to see Little's numbers as a PF, but apparently the small lineups with her at Center were her overall most effective. Tanisha is only -6 at the point guard since the halfway point when she was -31 showing improved play by the team with her at the point. With her fall in the rotation, Ely's numbers have come in ineffective team garbage time.

2 comments:

Q said...

Great post -- it's interesting to see that the majority of their roster is above the league average in TS%.

I was also surprised to see how well that small lineup with Little at C worked. Do you have a sense of how many minutes that lineup has logged? Is it a lineup they've used out of necessity in Jackson's absence?

Patrick said...

The small ball lineup with Little at Center has only been used for 12 minutes so far this season. It was definitely due to Jackson's absence, but necessity is not the word I would use. Agler still had bigs in Santos and Robinson who are tall enough to play traditional WNBA center roles. Based on his substitutions during Jackson's hiatus, it appears he was focused on matching up (I guess it worked)and putting the best five players on the floor that he could.