Saturday, August 30, 2008

Saving Houston

I wish that I had the $10M necessary to make sure the Comets remain in Houston. I don't, but it started me thinking about who the peers of the Storm's owners might be down in the Houston area. Of course that started me thinking about what major companies are headquarted in Houston. Suddenly, I had one of those oh, duh, moments. I felt like Homer Simpson uttering a big "Doh!"

The former naming rights owner of the Comets original stadium, the Compaq center is right smack in the heart of the Houston business community under it's current name of HP. HP also just merged with another huge Texas giant, EDS. Two of the Storm's owners are associated with Microsoft and are sure to have links to their peers at HP, a company known for housing a number of high powered women leaders. Perhaps a little networking on their part could dig up some candidate owners in a similar position in the Houston area that would be willing to show the same sort of support that the Storm owners have shown.

In the past HP has been an advertiser for the NBA and the WNBA, with ownership that included HP employees, a new sponsor could be found. There could be a wealth of strong co-marketing and philanthropic ventures that could be established. HP encourages growth of women leaders in business and the NCAA has great data on how sports for girls and women creates future leaders in the business world. It could be a match made in heaven. Sadly, I live too far down on the food chain to have the kind of networking contacts to explore something like this. I strongly suspect that Dawn Trudeau and Lisa Brummel have that reach from their Microsoft lives, however.

I think it would be a fantastic story if not only did these women help save the Storm, but helped build a bridge to save the Comets as well.

Friday, August 29, 2008

Game Twenty-Seven: Storm vs. Comets 28 August, 2008

It was really great to be back at Key Arena, and once again it was a decent sized crowd. The game was a little rusty, but the Storm moved one step closer to setting a franchise record for season wins.

I was really disappointed in the officiating, not because I disagreed with calls and the lack thereof, but because as the play on the floor became more heated and physical, they did not take charge and bring the game back under control. I spent the last five minutes of the game worried that someone else was going to get hurt.

Most Effective Shooters


Player

True Shooting Percentage

Effective FG%

Floor Percentage

Points

Sue Bird

71%

70%

51%

22

Yolanda Griffith

58%

50%

59%

9

Camille Little

44%

43%

40%

7

Katie Gearlds

44%

42%

37%

6

Shyra Ely

43%

43%

40%

6

Swin Cash

42%

20%

47%

6





This list is almost identical to the last game around a month ago. Statistically they don't look like they missed a beat over the break.

Top Ratings




PlayerOffensive RatingIndividual Rating
Yolanda Griffith119.72103.01
Sue Bird118.11113.54
Swin Cash97.9680.07




Raw Plus Minus

Sue Bird: +24
Tanisha Wright: +19
Sheryl Swoopes: +18
Yolanda Griffith: +12
Shyra Ely: +10
Camille Little: +10
Katie Gearlds: +6
Swin Cash: +1
Kelly Santos: 0
Ashley Robinson: -15

Tanisha didn't put up great numbers in any area, but her aggression and her balanced floor play (5 points, 5 assists, 5 rebounds) was a bigger impact than the boxscore displays.

Most Effective Lineups

Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Little-Griffith: +14
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Gearlds-Ely: +5
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Cash-Ely: +4


Comets
Most Effective Shooters

Player

True Shooting Percentage

Effective FG%

Floor Percentage

Points

Roneeka Hodges

56%

50%

52%

10

Michelle Snow

52%

67%

37%

4

Sancho Lyttle

50%

50%

51%

10






Top Ratings

PlayerOffensive RatingIndividual Rating
Roneeka Hodges109.6693.09
Sancho Lyttle102.6285.12



Raw Plus Minus
Mistie Williams: +1
Sequoia Holms: 0
Erica White: -2
Michelle Snow: -6
Sancho Lyttle: -6
Mwadi Mabika: -6
Roneeka Hodges: -7
Matee Ajavon: -8
Tamecka Dixon: -14
Shannon Johnson: -15
Tina Thompson: -22

Most Effective Lineups
Johnson-Ajavon-Dixon-Thompson-Lyttle: +4
Johnson-Ajavon-Dixon-Lyttle-Snow: +2
Johnson-Dixon-Hodges-Thompson-Williams: +2

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Kick Them While They're Down

Just as we begin to mentally adjust to the loss of LJ for the season, we get a kick to the midsection with the threat of season ending surgery for Swin Cash.

Yes, I chose the word "threat" on purpose. Cash is developing a reputation for being a difficult personality. She clashed publicly with Detroit Shock coach Bill Lambier last year, and her choice to skip practice during the break to pursue a broadcasting opportunity may have irked Coach Brian Agler. I want to assume the best of Cash, but I have to question why she and her agent are talking about potential surgery right now. It seems to calculated and conveniant to be just a coincidence. I hope it is not some type of childish pouting meant to penalize Agler for sharing her fines and benching with the media. I do not doubt her back injury, her sporadic play makes a lot of sense for a person with this type of injury, but why go public with this when she is planning to play this week? Why is her agent talking at all? I am thus forced to question the motivations of this behavior.

Monday, August 25, 2008

LJ out, USA Gold and the Playoff Race

I have been basketball lazy during the break. I had pretty good internet access, but work has been demanding and family even moreso during the span. Quite a bit has happened, but for the moment I want to focus on three areas, the loss of Lauren Jackson to injury, the USA win in Beijing and the upcoming playoff race.
LJ is Gone
In my humble (OK I am seldom humble, but anyway) opinion, anyone who questions Lauren Jackson's commitment is a ninny. Yes, I chose that word on purpose. If LJ chooses to have surgery now, then her pain was simply unbearable and the risk to her future significant. If you disagree, well, shut up.

To say that the Storm will not be as strong without her is the definition of understatement. The more important question is whether they can succeed without her. I believe, that there are six winnable games in the queue for the Storm, even without LJ. This is not statistical, this is gut feel. I don't think they can best LA or Connecticut on the road, but the rest are open for gutsy play from proven pros. I worry most about Chicago after watching the fantastic play of Sylvia Fowles in the Olympics. I am not slighting Sacramento, Houston or Minnesota, but they are available for the taking. Losing either Atlanta game is unacceptable at this point. That said, I will be chanting "Betty...Betty...Betty!" and "Izi, Izi, Izi!" at the Atlanta game in the key before the game starts.

USA Gold
I expected and demanded this reality. It broke my heart and I cried true, manly tears when I saw LJ and Penny Taylor in the medal ceremony. My youngest son said before the game that he wanted LJ to take gold and let Sue have bronze. I explained that Russia had the bronze and that the US could only have silver or gold and he said silver was OK as long as LJ got the gold one, cuz that was the best and LJ was the best, too. He was not happy when I shared the final score, though he did ask me to pause an LJ free throw so he could gaze longingly at his hero. When I was watching the men play he was significantly less interested asking me who the "good" guys were.

Playoff Race
I would be really surprised if the Storm could pull out first place with LJ out. The battle will be with LA for second. Fortunately, the Sparks have an equal schedule to the Storm and face first place San Antonio twice in their last their final seven games. If the games fall the way I predict the Storm hold onto second and face the Sparks in the first round of the playoffs.

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

Shame on me.

Ooops.

I said yesterday that I credited that free throw in the Connecticut game to Bird and Paul Swanson credited it to Beck incorrectly. The truth is, he had it right and I am the one who credited it to Bird. I found the right spot in the game but did my math backward about who had the point credited where.

Sorry Paul.

Anyway, now my numbers are perfectly lined up with Paul's so we both can have a high level of confidence in the numbers. I just have to remember not to be lazy and to use Paul's daily data as a sanity check for my numbers. Going back through my 2005 numbers shows how easy it is to make mistakes despite triple checking. My current system is better, but I can still throw the whole thing off with a typo in the floor lineups or a wierd substitution at the 0:00 mark of a quarter during free throws.

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Accuracy

The Olympic break has given me a chance to do two things I would not have gotten around to otherwise. First, I had the time to go back and check accuracy on my plus minus numbers for individual games. For the first time since Paul Swanson started tracking numbers for the league, he and I line up with my current data (which differs from numbers posted earlier last week). Well, almost line up. We are off by a single free throw in a single game where Beck was substituted for Bird at the end of a quarter between two free throws. I credit it to Bird who was on the floor when the foul was committed and Paul credits it to Beck who was on the floor when the free throw was made.

Since my corrections impacted precise numbers but not any orders (we are talking about a few points to individual players/lineups here and there), I won't repost until the end of the season. I will however continue to validate my numbers against Paul's now that we seem to have the same approach to crediting points. In previous years we varied more frequently.

The second task I am working on is to convert the 2005 season plus/minus data to show lineup, player pair and positional data. That was my first season tracking plus/minus and my system was less efficient. I have already found a number of errors (though I tripled checked that data that year) because of the need to track lineups. I am almost halfway through that season. I will post it once I have finished.

Monday, August 04, 2008

More Lineup Data

Most Frequently Used Lineups

LineupMinutesPlus/Minus
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Griffith83.75+25
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson48.22+2
Bird-Wright-Cash-Little-Griffith34.72+4
Bird-Wright-Cash-Jackson-Griffith23.87+17
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Ely-Jackson21.18-15
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Little-Griffith21.12+4
Wright-Gearlds-Cash-Little-Griffith21.12-2
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Little-Griffith17.75-7
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Jackson-Griffith16.82+9
Bird-Wright-Cash-Little-Jackson14.32-2
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Robinson13.95-6
Bird-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Jackson13.35+23

The arrival of Little has improved that lineup with Ely at PF from above, the Little version is only a -1 so far. I expect that to improve further now that Little has built up some time in the system. Little/Jackson, Little/Gearlds and Little/Cash appear to be strong player pairs and the Bird-Gearlds-Cash-Little-Jackson lineup is +4 despite only seeing around 3 minutes of playing time. I expect to see more of it after the break. It is a great way to continue momentum while giving veterans Swoopes and Griffith extra rest.

Top Per 40 Minute Lineups (>5 Minutes Played)

LineupPer40Minutes
Bird-Swoopes-Gearlds-Jackson-Griffith+83.815.25
Bird-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Jackson+68.9113.35
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Jackson-Robinson+39.139.20
Bird-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Griffith+30.517.87
Bird-Wright-Gearlds-Cash-Little+30.1311.95
Bird-Wrigth-Cash-Jackson-Griffith+28.4923.87
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Little-Jackson+25.719.33
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Jackson-Griffith+21.4116.82
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Griffith+11.9483.75
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Little-Griffith+7.5821.12
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Cash-Little+7.255.52
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Cash-Griffith+5.217.68

Friday, August 01, 2008

Numbers at the Olympic Break

As the team moves into the Olympic break, I wanted to take a look at the numbers to this point in the season, even though there are only a handful of games remaining.

With eight games remaining the Storm have already matched their 2007 win total. They need only to win four of the remaining games to set a new season win total record (20-14 in 2004 and 2005). Six of the remaining games are against teams that are either below .500 (two against Atlanta), or are teams they have already defeated handily (Minnesota twice, Chicago twice, Houston twice, Sacramento three times). The other two are against Connecticut (the only team to beat Seattle in Key Arena this season) and Los Angeles (split season 1-1 home and away). Unfortunately only three of these games (Houston, Atlanta, LA) are at home in Key Arena where the Storm have only lost one game this season. The Storm hold the best home record in the WNBA so far this season. If they follow their current percentages, ignoring the quality of the teams, they should go 3-0 at home and 2-3 on the road. Based on the teams they are facing they could close the season going 6-2. Personally, the two games I think they need to win are those I have projected as losses, the road games vs. Connecticut and LA in order to record wins against every playoff team, and show they can win on the road.

Player

True Shooting Percentage

Effective FG%

Floor Percentage

Points/Game

Camille Little

58.38%

57.03%

48.50%

7.7

Kelly Santos

56.65%

47.37%

54.56%

2.1

Lauren Jackson

56.42%

49.39%

50.73%

20.2

Sue Bird

52.01%

47.72%

45.87%

13.5

Tanisha Wright

51.56%

47.17%

45.55%

7.0

Katie Gearlds

48.76%

48.56%

38.14%

4.0

Yolanda Griffith

48.56%

41.90%

49.82%

6.2

Sheryl Swoopes

47.74%

43.18%

48.00%

7.7

Swin Cash

47.00%

37.50%

46.57%

11.3

Shyra Ely

43.28%

39.24%

41.13%

2.9

Ashley Robinson

23.52%

24.00%

29.36%

0.5

Kristin O'Neil

0%

0%

0%

0.0



What amazes me is that the entire main rotation is shooting better than 40%. Camille Little has shot to the top of the accuracy charts despite being forced into more minutes and a starting position by the five game absence of Lauren Jackson. I love that the top five spots contain three bench players.


Top Ratings

PlayerOffensive RatingIndividual Rating
Lauren Jackson112.6397.17
Kelly Santos108.7893.86
Sue Bird102.8193.00
Sheryl Swoopes101.6485.89
Camille Little99.2687.01
Katie Gearlds97.4784.22
Yolanda Griffith97.4277.81
Swin Cash95.2178.67
Tanisha Wright94.5483.08
Shyra Ely84.6467.13
Ashley Robinson59.6535.74
Kristin O'Neil20.1815.38


At the start of the season it was said that Agler's offensive system was an equal opportunity approach where any player could score at any time. The Storm have not had this balanced an offensive team since the 2004 and 2005 seasons. Last season the Storm had one player with an offensive rating over 100 and sixover 90. In 2004 they had three over 100 and nine over 90.


Plus/Minus


Player

On

Off

Roland Rating

Minutes Played

Lauren Jackson

+125

-60

+15.09

696

Sue Bird

+117

-60

+9.68

887

Yolanda Griffith

+85

-28

+8.24

495

Katie Gearlds

+54

+3

+7.29

290

Swin Cash

+74

-17

+6.51

797

Sheryl Swoopes

+58

-1

+3.74

638

Tanisha Wright

-19

+26

-7.60

551

Kelly Santos

-13

+70

-10.74

70

Camille Little

-14

+80

+23.42

224

Shyra Ely

-66

+123

-14.67

275

Ashley Robinson

-85

+142

-24.95

194

Kristin O'Neil

-16

+67

-28.24

25

I am only using Little's numbers in a Storm uniform, ignoring her data while in Atlanta. The Roland Rating is computed by subtracting the Net40 off from the Net40 on.

Most Effective Lineups

Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Griffith: +25
Bird-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Jackson: +23
Bird-Wright-Cash-Jackson-Griffith: +17
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Jackson-Griffith: +13
Bird-Swoopes-Gearlds-Jackson-Griffith: +11
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Jackson-Griffith: +9
Bird-Wright-Gearlds-Cash-Little: +9
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Jackson-Robinson: +9
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Little-Jackson: +6
Bird-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Griffith: +6
Beck-Gearlds-Ely-Santos-Robinson: +5
Wright-Gearlds-Cash-Ely-Little: +5
Bird-Wright-Gearlds-Jackson-Griffith: +5
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Robinson-Griffith: +5
Wright-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Griffith: +5
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Ely-Robinson: +5
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash: +5

Least Effective Lineups

Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Ely-Jackson: -15
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Ely-Robinson: -14
Wright-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Jackson:-10
Bird-Wright-Cash-Little-Robinson: -9
Bird-Wright-Gearlds-Cash-Ely: -9
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Little-Griffith: -7
O'Neil-Gearlds-Ely-Santos-Robinson: -7
Wright-Gearlds-Ely-Little-Griffith: -7
Bird-Wright-Cash-Little-Santos: -6
Wright-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Griffith: -6
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Robinson: -6
Bird-Gearlds-Cash-Ely-Griffith: -5
Bird-Wright-Gearlds-Cash-Griffith: -5

Top Player Pairs

Bird-Jackson: +142
Jackson-Griffith: +106
Bird-Griffith: +95
Bird-Cash: +95
Bird-Swoopes: +91
Bird-Gearlds: +85
Cash-Jackson: +82
Cash-Griffith: +69
Gearlds-Jackson: +68
Swoopes-Griffith: +65
Swoopes-Cash: +65
Swoopes-Jackson: +65
Gearlds-Cash: +62
Wright-Jackson: +62

Most Effective Swing Player Positions

Bird: Point Guard +117
Jackson: Power Forward: +78
Cash: Power Forward +55
Jackson: Center +47
Gearlds: Small Forward +38
Swoopes: Shooting Guard +29
Swoopes: Small Forward +27
Wright: Shooting Guard +16
Little: Center +16


Least Effective Swing Player Positions

Ely: Power Forward -45
Wright: Point Guard -36
Little: Power Forward -27

I was really surprised to see Little's numbers as a PF, but apparently the small lineups with her at Center were her overall most effective. Tanisha is only -6 at the point guard since the halfway point when she was -31 showing improved play by the team with her at the point. With her fall in the rotation, Ely's numbers have come in ineffective team garbage time.