A basketball fan and youth coach rants and rambles his thoughts on the Seattle Storm and the WNBA.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Saving Houston
The former naming rights owner of the Comets original stadium, the Compaq center is right smack in the heart of the Houston business community under it's current name of HP. HP also just merged with another huge Texas giant, EDS. Two of the Storm's owners are associated with Microsoft and are sure to have links to their peers at HP, a company known for housing a number of high powered women leaders. Perhaps a little networking on their part could dig up some candidate owners in a similar position in the Houston area that would be willing to show the same sort of support that the Storm owners have shown.
In the past HP has been an advertiser for the NBA and the WNBA, with ownership that included HP employees, a new sponsor could be found. There could be a wealth of strong co-marketing and philanthropic ventures that could be established. HP encourages growth of women leaders in business and the NCAA has great data on how sports for girls and women creates future leaders in the business world. It could be a match made in heaven. Sadly, I live too far down on the food chain to have the kind of networking contacts to explore something like this. I strongly suspect that Dawn Trudeau and Lisa Brummel have that reach from their Microsoft lives, however.
I think it would be a fantastic story if not only did these women help save the Storm, but helped build a bridge to save the Comets as well.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Game Twenty-Seven: Storm vs. Comets 28 August, 2008
I was really disappointed in the officiating, not because I disagreed with calls and the lack thereof, but because as the play on the floor became more heated and physical, they did not take charge and bring the game back under control. I spent the last five minutes of the game worried that someone else was going to get hurt.
Most Effective Shooters
Player | True Shooting Percentage | Effective FG% | Floor Percentage | Points |
Sue Bird | 71% | 70% | 51% | 22 |
Yolanda Griffith | 58% | 50% | 59% | 9 |
Camille Little | 44% | 43% | 40% | 7 |
Katie Gearlds | 44% | 42% | 37% | 6 |
Shyra Ely | 43% | 43% | 40% | 6 |
Swin Cash | 42% | 20% | 47% | 6 |
This list is almost identical to the last game around a month ago. Statistically they don't look like they missed a beat over the break.
Top Ratings
Player | Offensive Rating | Individual Rating |
Yolanda Griffith | 119.72 | 103.01 |
Sue Bird | 118.11 | 113.54 |
Swin Cash | 97.96 | 80.07 |
Raw Plus Minus
Sue Bird: +24Tanisha Wright: +19
Sheryl Swoopes: +18
Yolanda Griffith: +12
Shyra Ely: +10
Camille Little: +10
Katie Gearlds: +6
Swin Cash: +1
Kelly Santos: 0
Ashley Robinson: -15
Tanisha didn't put up great numbers in any area, but her aggression and her balanced floor play (5 points, 5 assists, 5 rebounds) was a bigger impact than the boxscore displays.
Most Effective Lineups
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Little-Griffith: +14
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Gearlds-Ely: +5
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Cash-Ely: +4
Comets
Most Effective Shooters
Player | True Shooting Percentage | Effective FG% | Floor Percentage | Points |
Roneeka Hodges | 56% | 50% | 52% | 10 |
Michelle Snow | 52% | 67% | 37% | 4 |
Sancho Lyttle | 50% | 50% | 51% | 10 |
Top Ratings
Player | Offensive Rating | Individual Rating |
Roneeka Hodges | 109.66 | 93.09 |
Sancho Lyttle | 102.62 | 85.12 |
Raw Plus Minus
Mistie Williams: +1
Sequoia Holms: 0
Erica White: -2
Michelle Snow: -6
Sancho Lyttle: -6
Mwadi Mabika: -6
Roneeka Hodges: -7
Matee Ajavon: -8
Tamecka Dixon: -14
Shannon Johnson: -15
Tina Thompson: -22
Most Effective Lineups
Johnson-Ajavon-Dixon-Thompson-Lyttle: +4
Johnson-Ajavon-Dixon-Lyttle-Snow: +2
Johnson-Dixon-Hodges-Thompson-Williams: +2
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Kick Them While They're Down
Yes, I chose the word "threat" on purpose. Cash is developing a reputation for being a difficult personality. She clashed publicly with Detroit Shock coach Bill Lambier last year, and her choice to skip practice during the break to pursue a broadcasting opportunity may have irked Coach Brian Agler. I want to assume the best of Cash, but I have to question why she and her agent are talking about potential surgery right now. It seems to calculated and conveniant to be just a coincidence. I hope it is not some type of childish pouting meant to penalize Agler for sharing her fines and benching with the media. I do not doubt her back injury, her sporadic play makes a lot of sense for a person with this type of injury, but why go public with this when she is planning to play this week? Why is her agent talking at all? I am thus forced to question the motivations of this behavior.
Monday, August 25, 2008
LJ out, USA Gold and the Playoff Race
LJ is Gone
In my humble (OK I am seldom humble, but anyway) opinion, anyone who questions Lauren Jackson's commitment is a ninny. Yes, I chose that word on purpose. If LJ chooses to have surgery now, then her pain was simply unbearable and the risk to her future significant. If you disagree, well, shut up.
To say that the Storm will not be as strong without her is the definition of understatement. The more important question is whether they can succeed without her. I believe, that there are six winnable games in the queue for the Storm, even without LJ. This is not statistical, this is gut feel. I don't think they can best LA or Connecticut on the road, but the rest are open for gutsy play from proven pros. I worry most about Chicago after watching the fantastic play of Sylvia Fowles in the Olympics. I am not slighting Sacramento, Houston or Minnesota, but they are available for the taking. Losing either Atlanta game is unacceptable at this point. That said, I will be chanting "Betty...Betty...Betty!" and "Izi, Izi, Izi!" at the Atlanta game in the key before the game starts.
USA Gold
I expected and demanded this reality. It broke my heart and I cried true, manly tears when I saw LJ and Penny Taylor in the medal ceremony. My youngest son said before the game that he wanted LJ to take gold and let Sue have bronze. I explained that Russia had the bronze and that the US could only have silver or gold and he said silver was OK as long as LJ got the gold one, cuz that was the best and LJ was the best, too. He was not happy when I shared the final score, though he did ask me to pause an LJ free throw so he could gaze longingly at his hero. When I was watching the men play he was significantly less interested asking me who the "good" guys were.
Playoff Race
I would be really surprised if the Storm could pull out first place with LJ out. The battle will be with LA for second. Fortunately, the Sparks have an equal schedule to the Storm and face first place San Antonio twice in their last their final seven games. If the games fall the way I predict the Storm hold onto second and face the Sparks in the first round of the playoffs.
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
Shame on me.
I said yesterday that I credited that free throw in the Connecticut game to Bird and Paul Swanson credited it to Beck incorrectly. The truth is, he had it right and I am the one who credited it to Bird. I found the right spot in the game but did my math backward about who had the point credited where.
Sorry Paul.
Anyway, now my numbers are perfectly lined up with Paul's so we both can have a high level of confidence in the numbers. I just have to remember not to be lazy and to use Paul's daily data as a sanity check for my numbers. Going back through my 2005 numbers shows how easy it is to make mistakes despite triple checking. My current system is better, but I can still throw the whole thing off with a typo in the floor lineups or a wierd substitution at the 0:00 mark of a quarter during free throws.
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Accuracy
Since my corrections impacted precise numbers but not any orders (we are talking about a few points to individual players/lineups here and there), I won't repost until the end of the season. I will however continue to validate my numbers against Paul's now that we seem to have the same approach to crediting points. In previous years we varied more frequently.
The second task I am working on is to convert the 2005 season plus/minus data to show lineup, player pair and positional data. That was my first season tracking plus/minus and my system was less efficient. I have already found a number of errors (though I tripled checked that data that year) because of the need to track lineups. I am almost halfway through that season. I will post it once I have finished.
Monday, August 04, 2008
More Lineup Data
Lineup | Minutes | Plus/Minus |
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Griffith | 83.75 | +25 |
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson | 48.22 | +2 |
Bird-Wright-Cash-Little-Griffith | 34.72 | +4 |
Bird-Wright-Cash-Jackson-Griffith | 23.87 | +17 |
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Ely-Jackson | 21.18 | -15 |
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Little-Griffith | 21.12 | +4 |
Wright-Gearlds-Cash-Little-Griffith | 21.12 | -2 |
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Little-Griffith | 17.75 | -7 |
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Jackson-Griffith | 16.82 | +9 |
Bird-Wright-Cash-Little-Jackson | 14.32 | -2 |
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Robinson | 13.95 | -6 |
Bird-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Jackson | 13.35 | +23 |
The arrival of Little has improved that lineup with Ely at PF from above, the Little version is only a -1 so far. I expect that to improve further now that Little has built up some time in the system. Little/Jackson, Little/Gearlds and Little/Cash appear to be strong player pairs and the Bird-Gearlds-Cash-Little-Jackson lineup is +4 despite only seeing around 3 minutes of playing time. I expect to see more of it after the break. It is a great way to continue momentum while giving veterans Swoopes and Griffith extra rest.
Top Per 40 Minute Lineups (>5 Minutes Played)
Lineup | Per40 | Minutes |
Bird-Swoopes-Gearlds-Jackson-Griffith | +83.81 | 5.25 |
Bird-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Jackson | +68.91 | 13.35 |
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Jackson-Robinson | +39.13 | 9.20 |
Bird-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Griffith | +30.51 | 7.87 |
Bird-Wright-Gearlds-Cash-Little | +30.13 | 11.95 |
Bird-Wrigth-Cash-Jackson-Griffith | +28.49 | 23.87 |
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Little-Jackson | +25.71 | 9.33 |
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Jackson-Griffith | +21.41 | 16.82 |
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Griffith | +11.94 | 83.75 |
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Little-Griffith | +7.58 | 21.12 |
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Cash-Little | +7.25 | 5.52 |
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Cash-Griffith | +5.21 | 7.68 |
Friday, August 01, 2008
Numbers at the Olympic Break
With eight games remaining the Storm have already matched their 2007 win total. They need only to win four of the remaining games to set a new season win total record (20-14 in 2004 and 2005). Six of the remaining games are against teams that are either below .500 (two against Atlanta), or are teams they have already defeated handily (Minnesota twice, Chicago twice, Houston twice, Sacramento three times). The other two are against Connecticut (the only team to beat Seattle in Key Arena this season) and Los Angeles (split season 1-1 home and away). Unfortunately only three of these games (Houston, Atlanta, LA) are at home in Key Arena where the Storm have only lost one game this season. The Storm hold the best home record in the WNBA so far this season. If they follow their current percentages, ignoring the quality of the teams, they should go 3-0 at home and 2-3 on the road. Based on the teams they are facing they could close the season going 6-2. Personally, the two games I think they need to win are those I have projected as losses, the road games vs. Connecticut and LA in order to record wins against every playoff team, and show they can win on the road.
Player | True Shooting Percentage | Effective FG% | Floor Percentage | Points/Game |
Camille Little | 58.38% | 57.03% | 48.50% | 7.7 |
Kelly Santos | 56.65% | 47.37% | 54.56% | 2.1 |
Lauren Jackson | 56.42% | 49.39% | 50.73% | 20.2 |
Sue Bird | 52.01% | 47.72% | 45.87% | 13.5 |
Tanisha Wright | 51.56% | 47.17% | 45.55% | 7.0 |
Katie Gearlds | 48.76% | 48.56% | 38.14% | 4.0 |
Yolanda Griffith | 48.56% | 41.90% | 49.82% | 6.2 |
Sheryl Swoopes | 47.74% | 43.18% | 48.00% | 7.7 |
Swin Cash | 47.00% | 37.50% | 46.57% | 11.3 |
Shyra Ely | 43.28% | 39.24% | 41.13% | 2.9 |
Ashley Robinson | 23.52% | 24.00% | 29.36% | 0.5 |
Kristin O'Neil | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
What amazes me is that the entire main rotation is shooting better than 40%. Camille Little has shot to the top of the accuracy charts despite being forced into more minutes and a starting position by the five game absence of Lauren Jackson. I love that the top five spots contain three bench players.
Top Ratings
Player | Offensive Rating | Individual Rating |
Lauren Jackson | 112.63 | 97.17 |
Kelly Santos | 108.78 | 93.86 |
Sue Bird | 102.81 | 93.00 |
Sheryl Swoopes | 101.64 | 85.89 |
Camille Little | 99.26 | 87.01 |
Katie Gearlds | 97.47 | 84.22 |
Yolanda Griffith | 97.42 | 77.81 |
Swin Cash | 95.21 | 78.67 |
Tanisha Wright | 94.54 | 83.08 |
Shyra Ely | 84.64 | 67.13 |
Ashley Robinson | 59.65 | 35.74 |
Kristin O'Neil | 20.18 | 15.38 |
At the start of the season it was said that Agler's offensive system was an equal opportunity approach where any player could score at any time. The Storm have not had this balanced an offensive team since the 2004 and 2005 seasons. Last season the Storm had one player with an offensive rating over 100 and sixover 90. In 2004 they had three over 100 and nine over 90.
Plus/Minus
Player | On | Off | Roland Rating | Minutes Played |
Lauren Jackson | +125 | -60 | +15.09 | 696 |
Sue Bird | +117 | -60 | +9.68 | 887 |
+85 -28 +8.24 495 | ||||
Katie Gearlds | +54 | +3 | +7.29 | 290 |
Swin Cash | +74 | -17 | +6.51 | 797 |
Sheryl Swoopes | +58 | -1 | +3.74 | 638 |
Tanisha Wright | -19 | +26 | -7.60 | 551 |
Kelly Santos | -13 | +70 | -10.74 | 70 |
Camille Little | -14 | +80 | +23.42 | 224 |
Shyra Ely | -66 | +123 | -14.67 | 275 |
Ashley Robinson | -85 | +142 | -24.95 | 194 |
Kristin O'Neil | -16 | +67 | -28.24 | 25 |
I am only using Little's numbers in a Storm uniform, ignoring her data while in Atlanta. The Roland Rating is computed by subtracting the Net40 off from the Net40 on.
Most Effective Lineups
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Griffith: +25
Bird-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Jackson: +23
Bird-Wright-Cash-Jackson-Griffith: +17
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Jackson-Griffith: +13
Bird-Swoopes-Gearlds-Jackson-Griffith: +11
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Jackson-Griffith: +9
Bird-Wright-Gearlds-Cash-Little: +9
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Jackson-Robinson: +9
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Little-Jackson: +6
Bird-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Griffith: +6
Beck-Gearlds-Ely-Santos-Robinson: +5
Wright-Gearlds-Cash-Ely-Little: +5
Bird-Wright-Gearlds-Jackson-Griffith: +5
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Robinson-Griffith: +5
Wright-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Griffith: +5
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Ely-Robinson: +5
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash: +5
Least Effective Lineups
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Ely-Jackson: -15
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Ely-Robinson: -14
Wright-Swoopes-Gearlds-Cash-Jackson:-10
Bird-Wright-Cash-Little-Robinson: -9
Bird-Wright-Gearlds-Cash-Ely: -9
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Little-Griffith: -7
O'Neil-Gearlds-Ely-Santos-Robinson: -7
Wright-Gearlds-Ely-Little-Griffith: -7
Bird-Wright-Cash-Little-Santos: -6
Wright-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Griffith: -6
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Robinson: -6
Bird-Gearlds-Cash-Ely-Griffith: -5
Bird-Wright-Gearlds-Cash-Griffith: -5
Top Player Pairs
Bird-Jackson: +142
Jackson-Griffith: +106
Bird-Griffith: +95
Bird-Cash: +95
Bird-Swoopes: +91
Bird-Gearlds: +85
Cash-Jackson: +82
Cash-Griffith: +69
Gearlds-Jackson: +68
Swoopes-Griffith: +65
Swoopes-Cash: +65
Swoopes-Jackson: +65
Gearlds-Cash: +62
Wright-Jackson: +62
Most Effective Swing Player Positions
Bird: Point Guard +117
Jackson: Power Forward: +78
Cash: Power Forward +55
Jackson: Center +47
Gearlds: Small Forward +38
Swoopes: Shooting Guard +29
Swoopes: Small Forward +27
Wright: Shooting Guard +16
Little: Center +16
Least Effective Swing Player Positions
Ely: Power Forward -45
Wright: Point Guard -36
Little: Power Forward -27
I was really surprised to see Little's numbers as a PF, but apparently the small lineups with her at Center were her overall most effective. Tanisha is only -6 at the point guard since the halfway point when she was -31 showing improved play by the team with her at the point. With her fall in the rotation, Ely's numbers have come in ineffective team garbage time.