Saturday, July 05, 2008

MidSeason Numbers

I know that the Storm have now played 18 games, but the numbers below are only from the first 17 games. I haven't entered the Lynx game into my data set yet in order to make sure that I get the midseason numbers compiled first. I fixed an error that had Camille Little get a little boost in plus/minus from LJ's numbers.

Most Effective Shooters



Player

True Shooting Percentage

Effective FG%

Floor Percentage

Points

Kimberly Beck

58.14%

50.00%

35.72%

8

Lauren Jackson

56.03%

48.45%

50.70%

335

Kelly Santos

50.76%

42.86%

48.72%

8

Sue Bird

50.38%

45.90%

45.67%

216

Tanisha Wright

50.06%

45.11%

44.19%

104







If I rejected the minimal minutes of Beck and Santos, the Swoopes and Cash would make the list with percentages in the high 40's.

Top Ratings

PlayerOffensive RatingIndividual Rating
Lauren Jackson112.7396.51
Sheryl Swoopes105.5289.14
Kelly Santos103.4281.63
Sue Bird100.6490.74
Swin Cash96.7479.03

Beck, Ely and Wright also have offensive ratings over 90.


Plus/Minus


Player

On

Off

Net

Net/40

Sue Bird

+63

-44

+107

+4.24

Lauren Jackson

+59

-40

+99

+4.10

Yolanda Griffith

+54

-35

+89

+6.75

Camille Little

+7

+8

+46

-1

Swin Cash

+22

-3

+25

+2.64

Sheryl Swoopes

+21

-2

+23

+1.77

Katie Gearlds

+21

-2

+23

+5.53

Florina Pascalau

-3

+22

-25

-13.33

Kristin O'Neil

-3

+16

-19

-40.00

Kelly Santos

-11

+30

-41

-20.95

Kimberly Beck

-14

+33

-47

-10.37

Shyra Ely

-14

+33

-47

-2.22

Tanisha Wright

-25

+44

-69

-3.21

Ashley Robinson

-55

+74

-129

-15.94

The starters have been great and the bench has been rather poor...no big surprise there, but Little has had a big impact early from a +/- perspective, and Gearlds has a strong showing as well despite her horrid shooting tear of late.

Most Effective Lineups

Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Griffith: +21
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson: +10
Bird-Gearlds-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson: +7
Bird-Gearlds-Swoopes-Jackson-Griffith: +7
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Jackson-Griffith: +6
Bird-Wright-Gearlds-Swoopes-Jackson: +6
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Jackson-Robinson: +5
Beck-Gearlds-Ely-Santos-Robinson: +5
Wright-Gearlds-Swoopes-Jackson-Griffith: +5
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Ely-Robinson: +5

Least Effective Lineups

Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Ely-Jackson: -15
Wright-Gearlds-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson: -8
Bird-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Robinson: -8
Wright-Swoopes-Cash-Jackson-Griffith: -6
Bird-Wright-Swoopes-Ely-Robinson: -5
Bird-Wright-Cash-Jackson-Griffith: -5

Top Player Pairs

Bird-Jackson: +73
Jackson-Griffith: +70
Bird-Griffith: +63
Bird-Swoopes: +54
Bird-Cash: +50
Cash-Jackson: +46
Swoopes-Griffith: +41
Cash-Griffith: +35
Bird-Gearlds: +34
Swoopes-Jackson: +34
Gearlds-Jackson: +32
Gearlds-Cash: +31
Gearlds-Griffith: +27
Swoopes-Cash: +27
Bird-Wright: +24


Most Effective Swing Player Positions

Bird: Point Guard +63
Jackson: Power Forward: +37
Cash: Power Forward +35
Swoopes: Small Forward +32
Jackson: Center: +22
Gearlds: Shooting Guard +21
Ely: Small Forward +7
Cash: Shooting Guard +6
Wright: Shooting Guard +6
Gearlds: Small Forward +3


Least Effective Swing Player Positions

Ely: Power Forward -33
Wright: Point Guard -30
Cash: Small Forward -19
Swoopes: Shooting Guard -11

Outside of the starting lineup, it looks like Swoopes and Cash should shift up to SF and PF respectively. This should happen whenever a starter subs out. I actually like bringing either Wright or Gearlds into the two guard and sitting Yo down.

10 comments:

Crow said...

Thanks for the stats.

"Outside of the starting lineup, it looks like Swoopes and Cash should shift up to SF and PF respectively"

Yep.

Without knowing minutes and finding per minute productivity for the lineups I can't really make a case for more or less of certain lineups though.

I'd be interested in knowing the worst player pair data for the starters- if you feel like posting that.



RebKell board's Hollinger power ranking thread puts Storm with toughest strength of schedule played in the league so far.

Griffith's turnovers per minute are pretty high for a starter but you get some bad with the good.

Crow said...

We don't know how much of Geralds' good +/- is because she is a good teammate / basketball player vs being in a good context. Likewise with Wright and Ely how much of their weaker +/- is them vs perhaps a tougher situation.

With raw team +/- you don't know immediately who has more benefit of favorable context (teammates and opponents). A careful observer can have a sense of that. Some study of the numbers could roughly estimate that with effort by computing the weighted average of "teammate" +/- for all their teammates according to how long they played together and comparing what different players have in teammate quality. Quality of opponent could be computed if the effort was really hardcore. In the NBA we now have the benefit of fully adjusted +/- numbers. But even then the numbers are noisy and off significantly in at least one-third of cases.

Even if pinning down net team impacts of individuals is tough you have the lineup data and could make reasonable choices from that. Still guesses because of small sample sizes. But that is where the eye of a coach or a superfan comes into play. And the mystery keeps it an interesting game.

Patrick said...

Gearlds +/- is valid. She has not played well outside a few games individually but the team has played well with her length on defense.

Wright's +/- is contextually poor. She is the default point guard for the bench and the bench has been terrible up to this point. Wright's +/- as shooting guard with Bird as the point is a fantastic +25 while with Beck it was a terrible -19.

I will post the per minute +/- for the lineups. I have wanted to set up an online database for my plus-minus data so it could be searchable, but have struggled with time and very rusty skills. I haven't been a true web guy for eight years. I have spreadsheets of Storm +/- from 2005-present.

Crow said...

Sounds good. Per minute +/- was suggested as just another step on top of your substantial stat analysis.

Online database for your plus-minus data so it could be searchable would be cool and add to your leadership record but I understand the issue of time and not sure how big the market is for that kind of stuff. I'd probably browse it if were available but just do what makes sense for you of course.

Crow said...

Looks like Cash-Swoopes is the weakest pair among starters though they all are positive.

Looks like Geralds-Cash and Wright-Swoopes are pretty good options.

Patrick said...

If you look at the Bird-Wright-Swoopes combo it is +38 for the first 18 games.

The Gearlds-Cash combo is +47.

I would agree with you.

Crow said...

I see all the starters have played 2-4 minutes less a game over past 5 games. Cause or effect of winning I don't know. 3 of the 5 on hot streaks.

Team raw FG% almost back to league average.

Patrick said...

That is an effect of winning. They are not playing at the end of games when they are up by double digits.

Bird and Gearlds are up particularly on shooting. Bird has finally cracked 100 on her offensive rating. Her championship year she was 114.

norwester said...

I'm certainly not a stat junkie, but I really enjoy reading about the science behind it and your analyses of the crunched numbers. It provides an interesting extra dimension to considering Storm games, and I'm grateful for the effort you put into it.

Patrick said...

I am happy to do it. My job stinks at the moment and basketball is WAY more fun than working.