Saturday, December 31, 2005

Aloha from my Happy New Year's seat overlooking the sunset on Kealakekua Bay off the Kona Coast of the Big Island of Hawaii. I have had no access to the internet for days and all of a sudden I pick up a random wireless signal from the front porch of my vacation rental in Hawaii.

Sue checks in from Russia. OK, not quite, she is having a holiday back in NYC from her time in Russia.

Kamila is really in Russia, though.

Storm are offering a special session with AD before the Sonics get beat by the Heat in January. (I am not being overly negative, it is just highly unlikely they can beat a team with Shaq, Wade and Gary Payton.) The Sonics are not so good this year, but as a season ticket holder to both Seattle pro hoops team, I am likely to be there and hope to see a good number of Storm fans there as well.

Monday, December 19, 2005

Though I am late in finding the news...LJ is hoping to salvage her WNBL season and return to play January 11th. With the Capitals in a solid 2nd place LJ's return, even at less than 100% could mean a return to Canberra dominance in the league. Of course, while LJ is ahead of schedule on her recovery, apparently the doctors have yet to give her the green light to play.
AD sighting at Key Arena last night. She was looking quite dapper at the Sonics game. I thought perhaps she was in town interviewing Assistant Coaching candidates, but she was surrounded only by her existing staff. I guess we will have to keep waiting. I imagine Kevin Pelton will lock her up for an interview to show up on the Storm site later this week.

I am off on vacation and will do my best to keep up with news and post as much as I can, but my time and my net access will be limited. Happy holiday season to everyone, whatever holiday you may be celebrating!
In WNBL action last week the Canberra Capitals played two games.

The first game was against first place Dandenong Rangers. As expected, the Capitals could not overcome the lack of scoring and fell 82-68 to the Rangers. Jenny Whittle (14) and Kellie Abrams (12) led the Capitals in scoring with very little help. Tracey Beaty managed 9 points to go with her 8 rebounds and 2 blocked shots. Whittle added 8 rebounds and 3 blocks while Eleanor Sharp led the team with 4 assists. The Rangers offense was led by the 23 points of Jacinta Hamilton and 22 points of Carly Wilson. Hamilton added 10 rebounds to achieve the only double/double of the game. Kathleen MacLeod and Samanth Richards added 9 points each to help out. Emma Randall led the Rangers with 5 assists.

The Capitals recovered the next day to steal 2nd place in the league by beating the Bulleen Boomers 77-65. Whittle and Abrams again led the team in scoring with 21 and 22 points respectively. They had some extra help this time with 16 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists from Eleanor Sharp. Angela Marino and Tracey Beatty added 9 points a piece rounding out the scoring. No other Capitals player scored a point though Tully Bevilaqua added 6 rebounds, 7 assists, a block and steal. Whittle added 10 rebounds to go with Beatty's 12 leading to an 11 rebound advantage overall for the Capitals. Beatty continues to turn the ball over with 6 TO's in this game alone. She has had a number of games this season with 4 or more turnovers. The Boomers were led by the 20 points of Sarin Milner, with Katrina Hibbert adding 13 and Hollie Grima chipping in 11. Grima added 14 rebounds to earn her team's only double/double. Milner led the boomers with 4 assists.

The Caps have the next several weeks off, playing their next games on 13th and 14th of January. WNBL league play picks back up on January 6th.

Thursday, December 15, 2005

After telling Coach Donnovan that she would be taking the off-season off to work on her game for next season, Izziane Castro-Marques has given up the vacation after only two months. She is now playing with Janelle Burse in the Czech Republic. Check out her blog on the main Storm site.

Tuesday, December 13, 2005

LJ is talking about skipping the 2008 WNBA season to better prepare for the Olympics...does that mean she is actually planning to play 2006 and 2007? It sure sounds like it...
I was on the road again last week and that has put me behind.

WNBL latest, the Capitals have played four games since I last updated.

They beat Adelaide 81-71 and wer led in scoring by Jenny Whittle (22), Tracey Beatty (21) and Alana Beard (17). It was nice to see some balance in the scoring for the first time in a while. Tully was the only other player in double figures with 10 points. Beatty did an impressive LJ imitation overall, adding 13 rebounds, 4 on the offensive end and she also chipped in 5 blocks. Beard had an off shooting night, going 5 for 15 from the field and only hitting 1 of her 5 threes, but she put in a solid all around game, adding 9 rebounds, 2 blocks, 2 steals and an assist. Kellie Abrams struggled with the ball shooting 2 for 9 and committing 5 turnovers. Samantha Woosnam (19), Cherie Smith (18) and Tami Willey (14) led the Fellas in scoring.

The Caps followed that up with a solid 90-71 thumping of the Syndney Uni Flames. Beard's scoring touch returned to lead the team with 28. She had support from Jenny Whittle (19), Tracey Beatty (16) and Kellie Abrams recovered her shot as well, going 6 for 9 and adding 15 points. Beatty got a back to back double/double, adding 10 rebounds and 2 blocks. Beard continued her all around play with 9 boards, 6 assists, and 2 steals to round out her 28 points. The Flames struggled, with only Belinda Snell (25) and Natalie Porter (22) offering any scoring punch, the only other player with more than 4 points was Eva Afeaki with 12.

They took their momentum from week ten into their next game against the young ladies of AIS and set themselves up a solid 72-46 victory to continue their winning streak. With Alana Beard returning to the States, and LJ still out with injury, the Capitals used defense to maintain their winning ways. Jenny Whittle (16) and Kellie Abrams (13) led the team in scoring with help from Angela Marino (12). They outrebounded AIS 44 to 32, led by 12 from Tracey Beatty who missed her third consecutive double/double by a mere point, and 10 rebounds from Jenny Whittle. They survived their poor 16 for 25 shooting from the free throw line by never fouling AIS who only got 7 shots from the charity stripe all night making only 3 of them. Mikaela Dombkins was the only player to reach double figures with 11 with Abby Bishop adding in 9 and Katie Ebzery adding 8.

The Capitals are going to need some scoring this week as they take on leaders Dandenong and Bulleen in back to back games and they want to extend the current 7 game winning streak. They still didn't find any in their second game without Beard, managing to squeak by with a 53-51 victory over the Townsville Fire. Tully took over scoring for the struggling team with her best performance of the season. She led the team in scoring, rebounding and steals with 19 points, 9 rebounds and 3 steals. Jenny Whittle was the only other player in double figures with 13 points and 8 rebounds. Tracey Beatty disappeared after three solid games with 0 points, 0 for 1 shooting, 4 rebounds, 4 fouls, 3 turnovers and a block in 13 minutes. Fortunately for the Capitals, no one but Jennifer Crouse (18 points, 10 rebounds) came to play for the Fire.

Good news from LJ says that her recovery is on track, though she is skipping the Opals training camp this December. Suzy Batkovic was not selected for the Opals this year, nor was Penny Taylor adding WNBL players Rohanee Cox (Townsville) and Deanna Smith (Perth) instead. Capitals Tully Bevilaqua and Jenny Whittle were also named to this year's Opal's squad.

Tuesday, December 06, 2005

WNBA announced its 2006 rule changes.

Shot Clock: cut from 30 to 24 seconds to line up with the NBA. It will reset to at least 14 seconds in the event of a foul. This will speed the game up and increase the number of possessions per 40 minutes. It should help offensive teams like the Storm, Liberty and Sun.

(corrected disconnected brain and typing error on length of the halves vs. the NBA quarters thanks to an alert reader)
Periods: increased from two 20 minute halves to four 10 minute quarters, not yet the four 12 minute quarters of the NBA. This will give some extra time for commercials, coaching and rest for the stars. LJ can now sit at the 30 second mark of each quarter and get a couple full minutes of rest between quarters.

Initial Possessions: Jump ball at the start of regulation and OT periods. Regulation jump will determine who has the possession at the start of each quarter. Winner has 1st and 4th and loser has 2nd and 3rd similar to the NBA. Jump balls during play for tying up the ball were NOT eliminated.

Timeouts: Mandatory 2 minute timeouts in the first and third periods. 2 Mandatory 2 minute timeouts in the second and fourth periods. Teams are given 2 regulars per half and they will fill the mandatory slots if used. After the mandatories have been met remaining timeouts will be 1 minute.

Fouls: Teams only get 4 fouls per quarter before entering the penalty, just like the NBA. 2nd foul in the last minute (not 2 minutes like the NBA) puts them in the penalty regardless of total fouls in the quarter.

Nothing huge here. They are trying to take advantage of the superior atheletes in this 9 year old league to drive up scoring and create more interest.

Sunday, December 04, 2005

Here is the other side of the coin, with the least effective lineups...

2005 Worst 10 Performing Combinations (with >5 minutes of play)



Combination

Per40

Minutes

Bird-Zara-Vodopyanova-Jackson-Batkovic

-52.06

7.68

Zara-Wright-Thompson-Jackson-Batkovic

-35.62

14.60

Bird-Zara-Castro-Batkovic-Burse

-30.97

7.75

Bird-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Batkovic

-27.24

57.27

Bird-Wright-Thompson-Jackson-Edwards

-25.07

11.17

Zara-Wright-Castro-Jackson-Batkovic

-24.47

22.88

Bird-Castro-Jackson-Stevenson-Burse

-21.24

5.65

Bird-Lennox-Castro-Stevenson-Jackson

-19.89

6.03

Bird-Zara-Vodopyanova-Jackson-Burse

-18.32

6.55

Zara-Lennox-Thompson-Jackson-Burse

-15.81

12.65



As I said with regard to the best performing combinations, 5 minutes in the course of a season is not a lot of time. Every player on the final roster shows up in at least one of these combinations.

2005 Worst 10 Performing Combinations (with >10 minutes of play)


Combination

Per40

Minutes

Zara-Wright-Thompson-Jackson-Batkovic

-35.62

14.60

Bird-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Batkovic

-27.24

57.27

Bird-Wright-Thompson-Jackson-Edwards

-25.07

11.17

Zara-Wright-Castro-Jackson-Batkovic

-24.47

22.88

Zara-Lennox-Thompson-Jackson-Burse

-15.81

12.65

Zara-Wright-Castro-Jackson-Burse

-12.06

29.85

Bird-Lennox-Wright-Jackson-Burse

-9.21

13.03

Zara-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Batkovic

-6.89

29.02

Bird-Lennox-Thompson-Batkovic-Burse

-6.73

17.83

Wright-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Burse

-5.34

22.47

Now we start to see combinations that were used a bit more. No combination with Vodo playing more than 8 minutes has a negative +/-. She only shows up in three combinations with a negative +/- for the whole season.

2005 Worst 10 Performing Combinations (with >10 minutes of play)

Combination

Per40

Minutes

Bird-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Batkovic

-27.24

57.27

Zara-Wright-Castro-Jackson-Batkovic

-24.47

22.88

Zara-Wright-Castro-Jackson-Burse

-12.06

29.85

Zara-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Batkovic

-6.89

29.02

Wright-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Burse

-5.34

22.47

Zara-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Burse

-4.57

52.50

Bird-Wright-Castro-Jackson-Burse

-0.30

132.72


The good sign here is that very few negative +/- combinations got much floor time. The one with the most is the starters with Tanisha over Betty. That lineup does not look ready for prime time yet. Replace Castro with Vodo in that same lineup and you jump to +20, however. That might be a rotation worth investigation next season.

Friday, December 02, 2005

I caught the Tennessee/Texas game last night on ESPN2. It was a blowout from the opening moments. Candace Parker looked good, but hey, she's no LJ! She is very athletic and has long arms, as she matures and improves her game she will make a big impact in the W.

On a side note, Kara Lawson looked and sounded good with her in-studio commentary, she looks like she has her second career all lined up.
A little note on the +/- numbers in general. They indicate how well a particular combination performed on the court together compared to the competition. In particular, a group of 5 players with a +7.51 rating outscored the opposing team(s) by 7.51 points while on the floor. A lineup with a -1.51 record was outscored by the opposing team(s) by 1.51 points while on the floor.

2005 Top 10 Performing Combinations (with >5 minutes of play)


Combination

Per40

Minutes

Zara-Castro-Thompson-Jackson-Batkovic

+78.69

5.08

Zara-Wright-Vodopyanova-Batkovic-Edwards

+56.80

5.63

Bird-Lennox-Thompson-Jackson-Edwards

+39.34

11.18

Bird-Lennox-Vodopyanova-Jackson-Burse

+37.56

10.65

Wright-Lennox-Thompson-Jackson-Batkovic

+36.18

6.63

Wright-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Edwards

+30.67

5.22

Bird-Lennox-Wright-Jackson-Batkovic

+30.49

9.18

Zara-Wright-Battle-Stevenson-Edwards

+29.45

5.43

Bird-Zara-Castro-Jackson-Batkovic

+23.58

15.27

Bird-Zara-Castro-Jackson-Burse

+23.39

13.68


Francesca Zara, who is the only player to play the whole season and still offer up a negative individual +/- on-court rating is in 50% of the best lineups with more than 5 minutes of floor time over the course of the season. I ignore the combinations with less than 5 minutes because they are so rarely seen that it is hard to accurately accept their values weighed across the whole league. This limits the 140 season combinations to 57 different combinations. Combinations that played at least 5 minutes most likely faced a number of teams. One lineup was only seen for the first few games of the season as it included both Ashley Battle and Mandissa Stevenson, both of whom were cut by the time Suzie Batkovic arrived. Because these combinations still don't see the whole league, I also want to look at those that saw the most time, and that would be the combinations with at least 10 minutes of floor time.

2005 Top 10 Performing Combinations(with >10 minutes of play)


Combination

Per40

Minutes

Bird-Lennox-Thompson-Jackson-Edwards

+39.34

11.18

Bird-Lennox-Vodopyanova-Jackson-Burse

+37.56

10.65

Bird-Zara-Castro-Jackson-Batkovic

+23.58

15.27

Bird-Zara-Castro-Jackson-Burse

+23.39

13.68

Bird-Lennox-Thompson-Jackson-Burse

+19.22

31.22

Bird-Lennox-Vodopyanova-Jackson-Batkovic

+17.87

13.43

Zara-Lennox-Thompson-Jackson-Edwards

+16.69

11.98

Bird-Zara-Thompson-Jackson-Burse

+16.06

17.43

Bird-Wright-Castro-Jackson-Batkovic

+13.40

23.88

Bird-Wright-Vodopyanova-Jackson-Batkovic

+12.45

12.85

Three of the previous combinations remain on the list when the sample is culled down to the 32 combinations with at least 10 minutes of floor time. Zara only shows up four times here and three of them are paired with Bird and Jackson. All of these combinations include LJ and all but one include Sue Bird, further indicating their importance to the success of the team. One interesting point is how much better the starters played with Vodo than they did with Castro or Thompson. The Thompson combination with the starters makes the top 10 but came in more than 18 points less per 40 minutes played. The Castro combination comes in at number 12 and offers almost 26 less points per 40 minutes. The best part is the depth of the team that this data represents. With Sue and LJ in the lineup you could use a variety of the options at the other positions and still dominate the competition over the course of the season.

When you cull the list even further to only combinations with 20 minutes of floor time, you end up with only 14 combinations and only seven of those are positive +/- combinations.

Top Combinations (with >20 Minutes)

Combination

Per40

Minutes

Bird-Lennox-Thompson-Jackson-Burse

+19.22

31.22

Bird-Wright-Castro-Jackson-Batkovic

+13.40

23.88

Bird-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Edwards

+11.13

25.17

Bird-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Burse

+11.01

257.83

Bird-Wright-Thompson-Jackson-Burse

+7.32

27.33

Wright-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Batkovic

+1.80

22.25

Bird-Zara-Thompson-Jackson-Batkovic

+0.00

23.63

Zara shows up in 5 of the 14 combinations, but only one of the positve combinations. Interestingly the Wright led combination shows up in the 14 as well with Burse instead of Batkovic at a startling -5.34 per 40 minutes of floor time.

This weekend I will take a look at the worst combinations from the 2005 season.

Thursday, December 01, 2005

I finished the season yesterday... I will post the results and some thoughts on the numbers over the next few days. I use the Per40 +/- calculation to try and equalize the comparisons between lineups used with different frequencies.

Top 10 Most Used Lineups

Lineup

Per40

Minutes

Bird-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Burse

+11.01

257.83

Bird-Wright-Castro-Jackson-Burse

-0.30

132.72

Bird-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Batkovic

-27.24

57.27

Zara-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Burse

-4.57

52.50

Bird-Lennox-Thompson-Jackson-Burse

+19.22

31.22

Zara-Wright-Castro-Jackson-Burse

-12.06

29.85

Zara-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Batkovic

-6.89

29.02

Bird-Wright-Thompson-Jackson-Burse

+7.32

27.33

Bird-Lennox-Castro-Jackson-Edwards

+11.13

25.17

Bird-Wright-Castro-Jackson-Batkovic

+13.40

23.88



It is somewhat frightening to me the that 5 of the top ten most used lineups are negative +/- lineups. The Storm were a +46 overall and +11.01 per 40 minutes across those ten lineups. These ten lineups account for just under 50% of the minutes played by the Storm for the season.

The Storm deployed 140 different on floor combinations over the course of the 2005 season. Only 57 of those lineups saw at least 5 minutes of floor time. The Storm as a team had a +91 overall for the the season, and a +2.69 points per 40 minutes.

Stevenson, Battle, Zara, Batkovic, Castro, Thompson and Jackson were the seven Storm players who had negative individual +/- statistics for the season. Only Stevenson, Battle and Zara offered up negative on-court +/- numbers, the rest of the players with negative ratings were impacted by the stronger numbers offered up by their team while they sat on the bench.

Tomorrow I will take a look at the ten most effective lineups for the 2005 season.